I’ve missed you. I’ve missed this newsletter. And I have a confession 😬.
I’ve been writing behind your back. This is not an easy conversation for me, our thing is special and will always be. But if you’d like, the Unblocked Report company newsletter is here.
As for Brian’s Bulletin, my first newsletter affection, I’m transitioning frequency to “every sometimes.” As soon as I have a worthy commentary written up to Bulletin standards, I’ll ship it to you.
Now for the meat of this post, lets check-in on my start-of-year reflection in which I stated “After perusing many web3 prediction articles, it seems to me that folks predict what they want to happen, without enough respect for the turbulent times we live in.” In other words, they were all too optimistic.
Not to toot my own horn but…. beep beep. In that post, I pointed out three major catalysts I was paranoid about: US Regulation, US Economy, and Taiwan. Here’s the updates since then:
US regulation: Policy makers and enforcers are taking strong actions.
US economy: Markets are tumbling while we have highest inflation rates in decades.
Resulting in company failures (e.g. Terra Luna collapse) and many hiring freezes and layoffs.
Taiwan: China is acting in concerning ways while war rages on in Ukraine, which is basically the Taiwan parallel for Russia.
The economy and Taiwan/Ukraine are challenging for everyone. However, I think more positively about regulation which is a sign of legitimacy if done right.
You can see my original post below.
It’s been great sliding back into your inbox today. See you again soon!
Happy 2022! Hope you had a great holiday season. There’s no doubt this year will be exciting and turbulent, so let’s kick off.
Unpredictable events have massive impact on the world. Anyone alive the past 2 years or who’s read The Black Swan can tell you that.
After perusing many web3 prediction articles, it seems to me that folks predict what they want to happen, without enough respect for the turbulent times we live in. Or maybe I’m just paranoid.
While I am optimistic about the trajectory, I am also monitoring the following three areas that are unpredictable and highly consequential. These are major +/- catalysts of industry growth.
The US government is still warming up to web3. On one hand, the Infrastructure Bill included unfriendly reporting requirements, the SEC continued to reject proposals to make crypto investing more accessible, and there continues to be lack of clarity in securities laws. On the other hand, more government officials are now web3 advocates (NYC mayor, WY Senator, AZ Senate candidate, OH Senate candidate and ex-FLOTUS – lol).
The question is if the government will make it easier or more challenging for companies to succeed.
A market downturn would likely result in failed web3 projects and slowed user adoption, while the opposite is true if the bull market continues.
So will there be a downturn or a bull market? This is a fun one to predict.
We have the highest inflation in 40 years and expected interest rate increases next year. Meanwhile the pandemic rages on amid supply chain issues. At the same time, the stock market is coming off all-time highs and web3 just had a banner year. According to Laura Shin, activity in DeFi is up over 10x and NFTs up over 300x.
Smart people like Ray Dalio and Balaji believe Taiwan is an escalating battleground for the US and China, who are already engaged in economic and technology warfare. Heightened conflict and physical war could lead to fear and a flight away from high-risk assets like crypto and NFTs.
All these unknowns are a signal that there is meaningful change happening. Change, in my opinion, that’s worth running through uncertainty for.
So, I’m buckled up and ready to go.
Have a great weekend.