Run Though the Jungle
Hey Friends,
Happy 2022! Hope you had a great holiday season. There’s no doubt this year will be exciting and turbulent, so let’s kick off.
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Unpredictable events have massive impact on the world. Anyone alive the past 2 years or who’s read The Black Swan can tell you that.
After perusing many web3 prediction articles, it seems to me that folks predict what they want to happen, without enough respect for the turbulent times we live in. Or maybe I’m just paranoid.
While I am optimistic about the trajectory, I am also monitoring the following three areas that are unpredictable and highly consequential. These are major +/- catalysts of industry growth.
US Regulation
The US government is still warming up to web3. On one hand, the Infrastructure Bill included unfriendly reporting requirements, the SEC continued to reject proposals to make crypto investing more accessible, and there continues to be lack of clarity in securities laws. On the other hand, more government officials are now web3 advocates (NYC mayor, WY Senator, AZ Senate candidate, OH Senate candidate and ex-FLOTUS – lol).
The question is if the government will make it easier or more challenging for companies to succeed.
US economy
A market downturn would likely result in failed web3 projects and slowed user adoption, while the opposite is true if the bull market continues.
So will there be a downturn or a bull market? This is a fun one to predict.
We have the highest inflation in 40 years and expected interest rate increases next year. Meanwhile the pandemic rages on amid supply chain issues. At the same time, the stock market is coming off all-time highs and web3 just had a banner year. According to Laura Shin, activity in DeFi is up over 10x and NFTs up over 300x.
Taiwan
Smart people like Ray Dalio and Balaji believe Taiwan is an escalating battleground for the US and China, who are already engaged in economic and technology warfare. Heightened conflict and physical war could lead to fear and a flight away from high-risk assets like crypto and NFTs.
All these unknowns are a signal that there is meaningful change happening. Change, in my opinion, that’s worth running through uncertainty for.
So, I’m buckled up and ready to go.
Have a great weekend.
Brian